Cross-posted from: https://feddit.de/post/9516433
By the end of 2023, Russians who support a troop withdrawal from Ukraine “without achieving the war goals” were for the first time more numerous than those who oppose such a move. Ordinary Russians consider the war to be the most important negative fact in their lives and want it to end quickly.
This is the conclusion reached by independent sociologists working for Khroniky (“Chronicles”) and the Public Sociology Laboratory projects. It is backed up by those who measure public opinion for the Kremlin.
Other analysts – from Z-bloggers [pro-war bloggers] to clinical psychologists – have also noticed a lack of mass support for the war effort. They all observe that Russians are not ready to protest to end the war, but nonetheless expect Vladimir Putin to end it. As the March presidential election approaches, the Kremlin’s political strategists seem to be trying to meet this demand.
This is the race.
Who will tire of the war first. Russia, Ukraine, the Ukranian partners. And how many will die before that point.Unfortunately Ukraine’s partners seem to be the first ones to get tired, which is what Russia is counting on. And if Trump wins the US election, Ukraine’s weapon aid from the US will likely cease completely, and European far right parties will use that to screw Ukrainian support in the EU too
American weapon aid has already ceased. It’s truly dire on the front. What could get worse is if American intelligence aid also stopped. As hard as it is for Europe to replace America’s supply of 155mm, replacing US intelligence is going to be even harder. That is to say, it would be absolutely impossible.
British intelligence is quite advanced tho, but completely replacing? Very difficult
Now, the support for Ukraine in the US, senate, and house are overwhelming, but speaker Johansson can just delay any votings forever it seems.
Ukraine is fighting to survive (and they know it) and Ukranian partners have 2 different reasons: the US to test weapon systems against what was supposed to be the 2th best army in the world (and to renovate its arsenal), EU because they are starting to understand that Putin is more and more looking like Hitler in the 1930’s, even if the situation is completely different and probably history cannot be repeated the same way.
This leave Russia (and Putin himself), which seems to have only to lose in all of this: if they retreat, Putin is doomed (the oligarchs would not be happy, to say the least), if they win they still lose: they will end with an ungovernable country that need to be rebuild, task for which they have not the necessary resources, and NATO even bigger since probably a lot of neighboring states would ask to enter NATO.
So in the end my truly cinical opinion is that this war will last until Putin will be “removed” from his position, be by natural causes, oligarchs “causes” or some kind of revolution.
without achieving the war’s objectives
What exactly does the Russian populous think those are anyway?
The Russian populace doesn’t think about it.
They think about their private life and let the “experts” deal with “politics”.That was what I’ve garhered. So again … What the hell does this headline even mean when it says “without achieving the war goals”
Do you think we deal differently with it in the West and do you think it is morally more appropriate?
Being a superpower again.
I mean, what are they gonna do, vote against it?
As the March presidential election approaches, the Kremlin’s political strategists seem to be trying to meet this demand.
I thought it was impossible for Putin to lose anyway.
It was impossible for the Soviet Union to lose in Afghanistan. It was impossible for the USA to lose in Vietnam.
Yet both did. Russia could lose in the exact same sense as the above. Hell Russia could lose in the same way the USA lost in Afghanistan recently.
As the March presidential election approaches, the Kremlin’s political strategists seem to be trying to meet this demand.
I thought it was impossible for Putin to lose anyway.
I"m talking about the election process. Do we believe Russian elections are no longer performative events with a predetermined outcome?
Meh, a blatently fraudelent election could be the catalyst for serious civil unrest and violence
I don’t think Putin has needed to do a lot of election fraud. He rules over the media, and has outlawed any serious opposition. I think of it more as an opinion poll than an election. For Putin I think unpopularity is a threat to regime stability, so he probably takes it seriously.
One can only hope that the large majority of population one day as enough of the war and forces Putin to pull out. I wonder how many young Russians actually consider NATO a threat like the boomers in that country.
