The Republican’s strategy is for there to be as much chaos on and after election day as possible to make claims that the election was fraudulent more plausible. Imagine waking up tomorrow and seeing planes falling out of the sky. The panic could be the wedge Trump needs, if not to win, to at least plausibly claim victory.

That’s fair. Especially when it’s open secret that at least 30 of 37 conservative organization’s polls where skewed in Trump’s favor to make it look he’s building momentum.

https://psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/2025-33892-004.html

We recruited 2,180 participants on Lucid between January 31 and February 17, 2020, about 9 months before the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Lucid, an online aggregator of survey respondents from multiple sources

https://support.lucidhq.com/s/article/Sample-Sourcing-FAQs

How are respondent incentives handled in the Marketplace?

Our respondents are sourced from a variety of supplier types who have control over incentivizing their respondents based on their business rules. Each incentive program is unique. Some suppliers do not incentivize their respondents at all, most provide loyalty reward points or gift cards, and some provide cash payments. Lucid does not control the incentivization models of our suppliers, as that’s part of their individual business models. The method of incentivization also varies; for instance, some suppliers use the survey’s CPI to calculate incentive, others LOI, or a combination of the two. Each respondent agrees to their panel’s specific incentivization method when they join.

So the study didn’t use a random sample. They took people who volunteered to do promotions that were funneled to together by one site. This is how we got those bogus polling data that Gen Z was secretly conservative because all the data was from YouGov.

The study they cite as justification really is about using Lucid over MTurk, not using Lucid over random samples. So they cite another study.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053168018822174

We would note, however, that even extremely idiosyncratic convenience samples (e.g. Xbox users; Gelman et al., 2016) can sometimes produce estimates that turn out to have been accurate.

https://researchdmr.com/MythicalSwingVoterFinal.pdf

The Xbox panel is not representative of the electorate, with Xbox respondents predominantly young and male. As shown in Figure 2, 66% of Xbox panelists are between 18 and 29 years old, compared to only 18% of respondents in the 2008 exit poll,4 while men make up 93% of Xbox panelists but only 47% of voters in the exit poll. With a typical-sized sample of 1,000 or so, it would be difficult to correct skews this large, but the scale of the Xbox panel compensates for its many sins. For example, despite the small proportion of women among Xbox panelists, there are over 5,000 women in our sample, which is an order of magnitude more than the number of women in an RDD sample of 1,000.

The idea is to partition the population into cells (defined by the cross-classification of various attributes of respondents), use the sample to estimate the mean of a survey variable within each cell, and finally to aggregate the cell-level estimates by weighting each cell by its proportion in the population…MRP addresses this problem by using hierarchical Bayesian regression to obtain stable estimates of cell means (Gelman and Hill, 2006).

Maybe this is a lack of stats knowledge on my part, but can a person really successfully math out the responses of demographics the study didn’t sample from when it mostly had respondents predominately from one age, one racial, and one sex demographic?

This seems like they are using math to make stuff up. It seems like the main driver of online surveys is to cut costs and save time for researchers. I’m taking this survey with a grain of salt for now. Maybe that’s just my bias though. =/

How long have you had this?

Like military time or a count down or is it colon separated?

What does the text look like for you?

No, prevent as in stop Israel from finishing.

When it comes to Iran I think it’s a case of Israel would if they could. But Iran is out of their reach.

It looks like the response was limited this time. That’s not to say that there won’t be a next time where they go overboard.

To be fair, Adventure Time is set a 1000 years after the apocalypse, so they’ve had a lot time to build.

Fuck me. I just came in from yard work. “I was touching grass.” It’s not any better.

100% I have no confidence in Israel’s ability to comply with international law or humanitarian norms. As a jew, I am less safe because of Israel’s genocide of the Palestinians. There is no interest in self-defense or defeating terrorists. Netanyahu wants to prolong the war to stay out of prison and to create a greater Israel. Israel attacking the UN troops has really ticked me off too.

We need to abandon fascism, neoliberalism, capitalism, and minority rule democracy. What we need is social democracy and we need it in every country, because it is currently the best system we have. We can have a global economy, but the rules we play by can’t allow some groups to exploit others or fail to redistribute wealth when there are economic winners.

I also blame Business Schools for not showing independent thought and propagating Jack Welch creative accounting shit

Scanning his wiki page he seems awful.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Welch

Welch’s practices and legacy were criticized as ultimately self-destructive and a bad influence on corporate America by author David Gelles in his 2022 book The Man Who Broke Capitalism: How Jack Welch Gutted the Heartland and Crushed the Soul of Corporate America―and How to Undo His Legacy.

Ok, I’ll bite, what.

No, what?

Apparently it is what is known as a rigged rental which is the equivalent of a quarter muncher. The game was so difficult that it would be to hard for new players to beat during the rental period to force them to buy it. It doesn’t seem like there was an actual arcade version, just a case of mixed metaphors. edit: typo

What’s surprising about it is that two attributes outweighs all of the upsides of being a full-time employee and the downsides of an enshittified business model that makes you pay for your own gas. It speaks to how important and valuable work-life balance and coworker interactions are. edit: typo

Companies should seek to provide at least the first and higher wages. I’m not sure what companies can do about generational differences, maybe different shifts, but that seems like it wouldn’t be feasible in every case. Maybe more training. He made it sound like an attitude problem though. =/

People simply don’t care. The amount of times people talk about fleeing the country vs even changing their local government is completely out of whack. People don’t try,

People have an instinctual flight or fight response to danger. And it’s rational for an individual to consider flight in the face of the most powerful military in the world. Discussions about safety are important. Most discussions I’ve seen qualify the need to flee based on Trump taking power. Most of the people who participate in them are explicit in their intentions to vote for Kamala and the Democratic Party in general.

I for one would like to see more discussion about changing governments. However the issue is less a lack of caring or lack of trying.

expect to move somewhere else and not try and not have their problems follow them.

It’s more as this gets to, a lack of perspective. People are thinking in terms of their own self-interest. Specifically themselves and the people they care about in their immediate social spheres. This is human behavior in a nut shell. People are not considering the broader context, in part because we’ve never had fascism at a global scale before. Even in WWII there were limits to the reach of fascist nation states, some continents saw little to no direct conflict at home.

What we are seeing now is unprecedented in history. If the US becomes a christo-fascist dictatorship we are going to see the world completely divided into sphere’s of influence. Dictatorships will become completely unchecked as the US switches from maintaining the world order to expanding it’s sphere of influence in the western hemisphere. A war with Mexico is not out of the question in this scenario. Neither is Canada falling to it’s own far right.

The rise of the far-right isn’t unique to the US, it’s been happening in India with Modi, Milei in Argentina, and in the Philippines with Bongbong Marcos. The far right is taking power and entrenching themselves all over the world. Modi and friends in India are buying news outlets to keep them toeing the party line and spewing propaganda. But unless a person is a political news junkie they can easily miss all of this broader context. People aren’t being informed about the global rise of fascism, so they aren’t discussing strategies that reflect that.

That’s what an actual Door Dash driver has told me, and I would think he would be aware of the downsides of the business. He has told me his war stories and despite all of the cons he thinks it is better for him then working in his old job sector. It seems pretty telling. edit: typos

The idea has also drawn skepticism on logistical grounds, with some analysts saying its costs would be “astronomical.”

This is like being skeptical that Nazi Germany would send people to death camps because it would be too expensive.

Bryan Dunn, an-Arizona based senior vice president at Big-D Construction, a major Southwest firm, called “the idea that they could actually move that many people” out of the country “almost laughable.”

Societies have been able to move millions of people around since they developed railway systems.

What’s almost laughable is the state of denial people are in.

Last year, the state’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, enacted a series of restrictions and penalties to deter the employment of undocumented workers. Many immigrant workers hastily left the state even before the policies took effect, with social media videos showing some construction sites sitting empty.

This is the best case scenario in theory. Immigrants would flee to safety before the US government could harm them. However, in practice, where can they go? Many people already come here because their home countries are too dangerous for them.

This gets to a broader point. I’ve seen a lot of discussion in the past about trying to flee the country if things go wrong. There isn’t going to be anywhere to flee to that’s any safer if the US becomes a christo-fascist dictatorship. The EU is going to have to fend for itself against Russia. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan will be on their own. Unrest in North America, South America, Africa and Asia will only get worse. We are seeing a global rise of fascism along with dictatorships becoming bolder and more willing to challenge the international order. Anyway we slice it, the only good outcomes involve fascists staying out of power.