You’re making my point for me. The likelihood a car, any car BEV or not, is going to make it to your (unproven) theoretical point of being a problem is 1 in 4.
If your premise is that BEVs are good up until the 200k mark, then you’re making a bad bet on your ICE or Hybrid needing to survive to the 200k mark to be worth it. With your numbers I have a 75% chance of being right, while you only have a 25% chance, and that’s even if I agree with your premise (which I think is a bit suspect).
It’s because people are uneducated and naive about the batteries and how assuredly a well built one will still fail and pretty soon the general population will wise up to it and old ev prices will dive.
Gotcha, so we’ve exited the discussion on proven fact and you’re well into your personal speculation. Thanks for the discussion up to now. Have a great day!
But what does that number even mean? There are also 278 million vehicles registered in the US and only 233 million registered drivers, so I’m betting a lot of those 16+ year old vehicles aren’t people’s primary mode of transportation. I spend 2-3 hours commuting on the freeway and certainly don’t see 1 in 4 being 16+ years old. My own car is 10 years old now and I would say it’s on the older side of what I typically see.
Removed by mod
You’re making my point for me. The likelihood a car, any car BEV or not, is going to make it to your (unproven) theoretical point of being a problem is 1 in 4.
If your premise is that BEVs are good up until the 200k mark, then you’re making a bad bet on your ICE or Hybrid needing to survive to the 200k mark to be worth it. With your numbers I have a 75% chance of being right, while you only have a 25% chance, and that’s even if I agree with your premise (which I think is a bit suspect).
Removed by mod
Gotcha, so we’ve exited the discussion on proven fact and you’re well into your personal speculation. Thanks for the discussion up to now. Have a great day!
But what does that number even mean? There are also 278 million vehicles registered in the US and only 233 million registered drivers, so I’m betting a lot of those 16+ year old vehicles aren’t people’s primary mode of transportation. I spend 2-3 hours commuting on the freeway and certainly don’t see 1 in 4 being 16+ years old. My own car is 10 years old now and I would say it’s on the older side of what I typically see.