The biggest problem with robots for a long time has been the brain, but now with LLMs, and other things, being good enough to fully control robots, even if using multiple specialized AIs, the tendency is that more and more will be invested in this direction.
Yes the first generations of robots might be slow and have problems, but that will be used to train the newer AIs for both embodied tasks and also for fully in-computer based tasks, meaning that by the time they can finally be produced cheaply and in mass they will be ready for many jobs.
This may also soon lead to less humanoid designs, like robots with multiple arms and no legs, leading to both generalist and specialized robots that can work very fast to take all manual labor jobs with ease in decades or less. Hopefully the people in the capitalist countries can manage to organize to work for changing the system into one where the people can benefit from the full automation that is to come.
The new average of global robot density in the manufacturing industry surged to 141 robots per 10,000 employees – more than double the number six years ago.
The following is a very basic calculation with many assumptions, of course, but if it continues doubling in six years as stated that would be less than 40 years for full automation. And that’s before taking into account more focus on making robots as they get better or robots getting better to the point they can make more robots faster and cheaper by themselves.
Actually the biggest problem with (humanoid) robots is and always has been power. Batteries only last so long and take up space and add weight.
It’s not the CPU. We’ve always been able to make robots that can perform certain tasks and with enough effort you can make robots that can perform many tasks.
What we still can’t do is have a humanoid robot that can perform a function for longer than like an hour before it needs recharging and recharging is slooooow.
If China really wants humanoid robots they need to invest in battery and capacitor technology.
Actually the biggest problem with (humanoid) robots is and always has been power. Batteries only last so long and take up space and add weight.
Kinda. If the robots are good enough that they can do all sorts of tasks with a humanoid robot it wouldn’t be hard to make them switch their own batteries, which isn’t very different of humans and their need to eat and such, or the can just plug themselves to be powered up when needed.
Indeed that might not be very convenient or the most efficient but it could be done by robots alone without human input. As the tech needed for these robots means that industrial robots, many of which can be plugged in all the time, could also produce much more and cheaper, leading to the possibility of simply having many batteries cheaply. Not the best solution but it is a solution.
It’s not the CPU.
It is the CPU to some extent, but recently software has been biggest part of it and one that is being improved a lot recently.
We’ve always been able to make robots that can perform certain tasks and with enough effort you can make robots that can perform many tasks.
The robots in industry so far were mostly just a complex machine doing a simple task. They couldn’t try to improve themselves or do anything beyond their programming. For example, a machine taking a part in an assembly line and putting it somewhere else can only really take something if it is where it expects it to be (to the mm) when it expects it to be there. With newer but no so new tech they might be able to recognize a QR like symbol on it and and reorient themselves but they can’t do anything other than what they have been programmed to do.
But the newer robots with newer AIs will soon be able to do anything a human can. For example, if you ask one to clean the house and the neighboorhood they don’t just goes around the floor vaccuing while perhaps missing some parts, they could see that becoming a doctor and buying more robots to clean everything is a solution and they will think about it. That’s the level of difference in task making here.
The biggest problem with robots for a long time has been the brain, but now with LLMs, and other things, being good enough to fully control robots, even if using multiple specialized AIs, the tendency is that more and more will be invested in this direction.
Yes the first generations of robots might be slow and have problems, but that will be used to train the newer AIs for both embodied tasks and also for fully in-computer based tasks, meaning that by the time they can finally be produced cheaply and in mass they will be ready for many jobs.
This may also soon lead to less humanoid designs, like robots with multiple arms and no legs, leading to both generalist and specialized robots that can work very fast to take all manual labor jobs with ease in decades or less. Hopefully the people in the capitalist countries can manage to organize to work for changing the system into one where the people can benefit from the full automation that is to come.
The following is a very basic calculation with many assumptions, of course, but if it continues doubling in six years as stated that would be less than 40 years for full automation. And that’s before taking into account more focus on making robots as they get better or robots getting better to the point they can make more robots faster and cheaper by themselves.
Actually the biggest problem with (humanoid) robots is and always has been power. Batteries only last so long and take up space and add weight.
It’s not the CPU. We’ve always been able to make robots that can perform certain tasks and with enough effort you can make robots that can perform many tasks.
What we still can’t do is have a humanoid robot that can perform a function for longer than like an hour before it needs recharging and recharging is slooooow.
If China really wants humanoid robots they need to invest in battery and capacitor technology.
Kinda. If the robots are good enough that they can do all sorts of tasks with a humanoid robot it wouldn’t be hard to make them switch their own batteries, which isn’t very different of humans and their need to eat and such, or the can just plug themselves to be powered up when needed.
Indeed that might not be very convenient or the most efficient but it could be done by robots alone without human input. As the tech needed for these robots means that industrial robots, many of which can be plugged in all the time, could also produce much more and cheaper, leading to the possibility of simply having many batteries cheaply. Not the best solution but it is a solution.
It is the CPU to some extent, but recently software has been biggest part of it and one that is being improved a lot recently.
The robots in industry so far were mostly just a complex machine doing a simple task. They couldn’t try to improve themselves or do anything beyond their programming. For example, a machine taking a part in an assembly line and putting it somewhere else can only really take something if it is where it expects it to be (to the mm) when it expects it to be there. With newer but no so new tech they might be able to recognize a QR like symbol on it and and reorient themselves but they can’t do anything other than what they have been programmed to do.
But the newer robots with newer AIs will soon be able to do anything a human can. For example, if you ask one to clean the house and the neighboorhood they don’t just goes around the floor vaccuing while perhaps missing some parts, they could see that becoming a doctor and buying more robots to clean everything is a solution and they will think about it. That’s the level of difference in task making here.
What about, like, humanoid robot trams with an electrified ceiling?